Trade Analysis and Recommendations for the Japanese Yen

The price test at 154.11 occurred when the MACD indicator had just started moving upward from the zero line, confirming the correct entry point for buying the U.S. dollar and resulting in a 25-point rise.

There were no interventions from the Bank of Japan, so traders continued to sell the yen and buy the U.S. dollar. In the second half of the day, only weak data on U.S. new home sales and the Chicago Business Activity Index could trigger the closing of long dollar positions at the end of the month. Nevertheless, decisive statements from Federal Reserve officials such as Raphael Bostic and Beth M. Hammack could support dollar buyers. The volume of new home sales, as an indicator of consumer sentiment and purchasing power, has a direct impact on the dynamics of the U.S. currency. A decline in sales indicates a slowdown in economic growth, which reduces the dollar's appeal. However, the key factor will be the stance of Fed officials. If Bostic and Hammack take a hawkish position, emphasizing the need to wait and see how inflation and labor market data evolve, this could offset the negative impact of weak economic figures and even lead to a strengthening of the dollar.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely mainly on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today upon reaching the entry point around 154.31 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 154.90 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 154.90, I plan to close long positions and open shorts in the opposite direction, expecting a 30–35-point pullback. Dollar growth can be expected only if the Fed maintains a strong, hawkish position.Important: Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY in the case of two consecutive tests of the 154.02 price level at a time when the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger an upward reversal. Growth toward the opposite levels of 154.31 and 154.90 can then be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today after breaking below 154.02 (red line on the chart), which should lead to a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 153.54, where I plan to close short positions and immediately open long ones in the opposite direction, expecting a 20–25-point rebound. Downward pressure on the pair may return if the Fed adopts a dovish stance.Important: Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just starting to move downward from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the 154.31 price level when the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a downward reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels of 154.02 and 153.54 can be expected.

Chart Notes:

• Thin green line – entry price where buying the trading instrument is recommended;
• Thick green line – suggested level for setting Take Profit or manually fixing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price where selling the trading instrument is recommended;
• Thick red line – suggested level for setting Take Profit or manually fixing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD Indicator: When entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important Notice for Beginner Traders

Beginner Forex traders should make entry decisions with extreme caution. Before the release of major fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sudden price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit — especially if you ignore money management rules and trade large volumes.

And remember: to trade successfully, you must have a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions are an inherently losing strategy for intraday traders.