Trade Review and Advice on Trading the Japanese Yen

The test of 146.88 occurred when the MACD indicator had just started moving down from the zero mark, confirming it as the correct entry point for selling the dollar, and this resulted in a drop of over 40 pips in the pair.

Expectations that the Federal Reserve will take a more dovish approach have been the main factor pressuring the dollar and supporting the Japanese yen. Most likely, in the first half of today, the dollar will continue to struggle to gain ground. This situation is due to several factors. First, US economic data lately has been clearly negative, offering a sobering picture of the US economy. Second, even though the market has already priced in the Fed's coming rate cuts, this continues to make the dollar less attractive to investors. Third, the Japanese yen, in contrast, is benefiting from expectations of imminent changes to Bank of Japan policy.

As for the intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today around the entry point of 146.62 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 147.05 (thicker green line). Near 147.05, I'll exit longs and open shorts on the bounce (expecting a 30–35 pip reversal). The optimal opportunities to buy this pair are on pullbacks and deep corrections. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD is above the zero line and just starting to rise.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of 146.39 while the MACD is in the oversold zone. This will limit downside and trigger a reversal up. Look for growth to the opposite levels, 146.62 and 147.05.

Sell Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after a move below 146.39 (red line on the chart), which could trigger a rapid drop. Sellers' key target will be 146.01, where I'll exit shorts and immediately open longs in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 pip bounce). It's best to sell as high as possible. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD is below zero and starting to drop.

Scenario #2: I'll also look to sell USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of 146.62 while the MACD is in overbought territory. This will cap the upside and trigger a reversal down, targeting the opposite levels: 146.39 and 146.01.

What's on the Chart:

Thin green line – entry price at which the instrument can be bought.

Thick green line – suggested price for taking profit or manually securing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.

Thin red line – entry price at which the instrument can be sold.

Thick red line – suggested price for taking profit or manually securing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.

MACD indicator: When entering the market, it is important to refer to overbought and oversold areas.

Important. Beginner forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making entry decisions. Before important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during the release of news, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade large volumes. And remember: for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan, as I described above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation from moment to moment is a losing strategy for an intraday trader.