Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Japanese Yen

The anticipated tests of the specified levels never occurred, so I remained without any trades.

The improvement in U.S. consumer confidence had a positive impact on the U.S. dollar, but it did not lead to a substantial rise in the USD/JPY pair. The dollar only slightly strengthened, while trading remained within a sideways channel.

Today, during the first half of the day, pressure on the USD/JPY pair may persist, as traders are likely to take profits ahead of the important Federal Reserve meeting, where the committee is expected to keep interest rates unchanged. Additionally, a series of important U.S. data will be released in the second half of the day, which could be quite mixed. Therefore, during the European session, we are unlikely to see strong demand for the U.S. dollar.

For intraday strategy, I will focus primarily on Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenario

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY upon reaching the entry point around 148.28 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 148.94 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 148.94, I plan to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30–35 pip reversal from that level. It's best to return to buying the pair during corrections and significant pullbacks in USD/JPY.

Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and starting to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if the 147.86 level is tested twice in a row while the MACD is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downside potential and trigger a reversal to the upside. A rise toward the opposing levels of 148.28 and 148.94 can be expected.

Sell Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after an update of the 147.86 level (red line on the chart), which could lead to a sharp decline in the pair. The main target for sellers will be 147.14, where I plan to exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction, aiming for a 20–25 pip rebound from that level. Pressure on the pair may return at any moment today.

Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if the 148.28 level is tested twice in a row while the MACD is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. A drop toward the opposing levels of 147.86 and 147.14 can be expected.

What's on the Chart:

• The thin green line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be bought.
• The thick green line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price growth above this level is unlikely.
• The thin red line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be sold.
• The thick red line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price decline below this level is unlikely.
• The MACD indicator should be used to assess overbought and oversold zones when entering the market.

Important Notes:

• Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making market entry decisions. It is advisable to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid exposure to sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Trading without stop-loss orders can quickly wipe out your entire deposit, especially if you neglect money management principles and trade with high volumes.
• Remember, successful trading requires a well-defined trading plan, similar to the one outlined above. Making impulsive trading decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for intraday traders.