Trade Analysis and Recommendations for the Japanese Yen

The test of the 148.36 level occurred when the MACD indicator had just started to move upward from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for buying the dollar, which resulted in a 25-point rise in the pair.

During the U.S. session, the market is expecting data on job openings and labor turnover from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Consumer Confidence Index, and the trade balance in goods. Strong figures could trigger another sell-off of the Japanese yen and further strengthen the U.S. dollar. The market is particularly focused on the JOLTS data, which is one of the indicators of the U.S. economy's health. A rise in job openings signals growing demand for labor and the potential for increased inflation. Low labor turnover reflects labor market stability and worker confidence in job security. The Consumer Confidence Index published by the Conference Board is also significant. A high level of consumer confidence typically leads to greater spending, which boosts economic growth. Finally, the trade balance data helps evaluate the impact of foreign trade on the U.S. economy. A narrowing trade deficit is a positive signal for the dollar.

If all these indicators show strong results, additional pressure on the Japanese yen is likely.

As for intraday trading, I will rely primarily on the implementation of scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today if the price reaches the 148.80 level (green line on the chart), targeting a rise toward 149.51 (thick green line). Near 149.51, I will exit long positions and consider short positions in the opposite direction (anticipating a 30–35 point pullback). The current uptrend allows for further bullish movement. Important: Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY if the price tests 148.34 twice in a row, while the MACD is in the oversold zone. This would limit the downward potential and lead to a reversal. Growth can be expected toward 148.80 and 149.51.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today after a break below 148.34 (red line on the chart), which could trigger a sharp decline. The key target for sellers will be 147.62, where I will exit short positions and consider buying in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point rebound). A return of downward pressure on the pair is unlikely today. Important: Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to fall.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY if the price tests 148.80 twice in a row, while the MACD is in the overbought zone. This would limit the upward potential and lead to a reversal. A decline toward 148.34 and 147.62 can be expected.

What's on the chart:

• Thin green line – Entry price for buying the instrument.
• Thick green line – Suggested Take Profit level or a point to lock in profits; further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line – Entry price for selling the instrument.
• Thick red line – Suggested Take Profit level or a point to lock in profits; further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD Indicator – When entering the market, rely on overbought and oversold zones.

Important Note for Beginner Forex Traders

Beginner traders should be very cautious when making decisions to enter the market. It's best to avoid trading before major fundamental reports are released to prevent getting caught in sharp price movements. If you choose to trade during news events, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, your entire deposit can be wiped out quickly, especially if you trade large volumes and neglect money management principles.

And remember: successful trading requires a clear and structured trading plan—like the one provided above. Making spontaneous decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for intraday traders.