At the close of the last regular session, US stock indexes ended in the green. The S&P 500 rose by 0.58%, the Nasdaq 100 gained 1.07%, and the industrial Dow Jones increased by 0.62%.

Today, Asian stock indices also posted gains ahead of the upcoming trade talks between the US and China, expected to take place this weekend. A trade agreement with the United Kingdom has sparked optimism over potential tariff relief and restored confidence that Trump's administration might find a path to resolving disputes with other nations as well.

However, behind this wave of optimism, experts point to several factors that could complicate the next phase of trade negotiations. Firstly, the specific nature of the British economy and its close ties to the European Union require a tailored approach that is unlikely to be applicable to larger economies such as China or Germany. Secondly, the internal political climate in the United States is putting added pressure on the administration, possibly forcing it to act more decisively and perhaps less flexibly when it comes to concessions. Additionally, disagreements within Trump's own administration regarding trade policy strategy could further obstruct the path to compromise.

Futures on US and European stock indexes rose slightly, while yields on 10-year US Treasury bonds edged down. Gold halted its decline and climbed 0.3%.

It's clear that investors are focused on the outcome of this weekend's trade negotiations after President Donald Trump stated that he believes the talks could yield meaningful progress and that China may be ready to make concessions. "The current risk-on sentiment around US-UK trade could face a reality check this weekend in Switzerland," analysts at Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB noted. "If initial talks between China and the US show no sign of backing away from sky-high tariffs, the dollar is likely to resume its decline."

To recap, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamison Greer are set to meet in Switzerland with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng. Trump has said that if the talks go well, he may consider reducing the 145% tariff imposed on a wide range of Chinese goods back in April.

There are rumors that the US side is targeting a tariff reduction below 60% as an initial step, and they believe China might be open to that. Any progress during the two days of scheduled discussions could lead to implementation of those reductions as early as next week. "There's a high degree of optimism that some rollback of current damaging tariffs may occur," said Manulife Investment Management. "But it would be a mistake to expect a quick and easy solution to US-China relations."

Commodities update

Oil prices rose, reflecting optimism around the potential for further trade agreements involving the US.

S&P 500 technical outlook The key task for buyers today will be to break through the nearest resistance at $5,677. This move would support further growth and open the path toward $5,692. Another important objective for the bulls is to gain control over the $5,715 level, which would further strengthen their position. If the index moves lower due to a decline in risk appetite, buyers are expected to step in around $5,653. A break below this support could quickly send the instrument down to $5,630, with $5,608 as the next major target.