empty
02.06.2025 12:52 AM
U.S. Dollar: Weekly Preview

This image is no longer relevant

The economic news background in the U.S. will be very strong. It's the beginning of a new month, so reports on business activity, the labor market, job openings, and unemployment will be released. If we exclude the inflation report, the above indicators are the most important for market participants. However, in recent months, monetary policy from the Federal Reserve or the unemployment rate has not been the market's primary focus. Instead, the market has been dominated by the new trade architecture that Donald Trump is trying to implement in the global economy. Therefore, there is every reason to believe that trade war news will continue to dominate next week.

Everyone should be waiting for the upcoming news, but why wait when it's already here? Over the weekend, Donald Trump announced increased tariffs on imported steel and aluminum to protect American factories and manufacturers. This news alone could sharply reduce demand for the U.S. dollar on Monday.

In addition, the ISM Manufacturing PMI will be released on Monday, followed by the JOLTS job openings report on Tuesday, the ISM Services PMI and ADP employment report on Wednesday, and the Nonfarm Payrolls and unemployment rate on Friday.

This image is no longer relevant

Furthermore, I am confident we will receive new updates on the global trade war. Trump may announce signing initial trade agreements, which would slightly ease market tensions. Alternatively, it could be new tariffs. By the way, I wouldn't exclude the European Union and China from the list of countries against which tariffs could be raised. Trump's mood changes very often. Today, he might agree to Ursula von der Leyen's request to postpone tariff hikes, and tomorrow, he could change his mind and raise them. Therefore, it's too early to relax — this story is far from over.

Wave Pattern for EUR/USD:

Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the pair continues to build a bullish segment of the trend. In the near term, the wave structure will depend entirely on news flow related to Trump's decisions and U.S. foreign policy. Wave 3 of the bullish segment has begun, and its targets could extend up to the 1.25 area. Thus, I consider buying opportunities with targets above 1.1572, corresponding to 423.6% of the Fibonacci extension. It should be remembered that a de-escalation of the trade war could reverse the bullish trend, but for now, there are no signs of reversal or de-escalation.

This image is no longer relevant

Wave Pattern for GBP/USD:

The wave structure of GBP/USD has transformed. We are now dealing with a bullish impulse wave. Unfortunately, with Donald Trump in office, markets may experience many shocks and reversals that don't fit neatly into any wave pattern or technical analysis. However, the current working scenario and wave structure remain intact. Wave 3 of the bullish segment is ongoing, with immediate targets at 1.3541 and 1.3714. Therefore, I continue to consider buying, as the market shows no desire to reverse the trend at this point.

Main Principles of My Analysis:

  1. Wave structures should be simple and understandable. Complex structures are hard to trade and often bring unexpected changes.
  2. If you're not confident in the market situation, it's better not to enter.
  3. Absolute certainty in the market's direction does not and cannot exist. Always use Stop Loss orders.
  4. Wave analysis can and should be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.
Chin Zhao,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Summary
Urgency
Analytic
Alexander Dneprovskiy
Start trade
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

What to Pay Attention to on July 30? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

A considerable number of macroeconomic reports are scheduled for Wednesday. Germany, the Eurozone, and the United States will all release Q2 GDP reports. It is worth noting that while

Paolo Greco 07:07 2025-07-30 UTC+2

GBP/USD Overview – July 30: The Pound Keeps Falling "in Sympathy"

The GBP/USD currency pair continued its decline on Monday and extended the move into Tuesday. It's worth noting that the British pound began falling earlier than the euro, already last

Paolo Greco 03:48 2025-07-30 UTC+2

EUR/USD Overview – July 30: Beating the Fallen

The EUR/USD currency pair continued its downward movement on Tuesday, driven by the same factors as on Monday—as we warned in advance. On Monday, it was revealed that the European

Paolo Greco 03:48 2025-07-30 UTC+2

The Fed Will Remain in Wait-and-See Mode Until September

There will likely be some dovish hints, but they will probably not differ from previous statements and rhetoric by Federal Reserve officials. This is the general expectation one day before

Chin Zhao 01:14 2025-07-30 UTC+2

Trump Will Defeat the Fed One Way or Another

Donald Trump continues to reshape the world order. The U.S. President keeps dictating terms to nearly half the world's countries—and his strategy is working so far. The trade agreement with

Chin Zhao 01:14 2025-07-30 UTC+2

AUD/USD Ahead of a Crucial Release

On July 30, key data on inflation growth in Australia for the second quarter will be published. This release is highly significant for the AUD/USD pair, especially in the run-up

Irina Manzenko 01:14 2025-07-30 UTC+2

The Euro Lost the War

To be or to appear? The sharp EUR/USD rally to nearly four-year highs in early July may have looked like the eurozone's confidence in a bright future. A strong economy

Marek Petkovich 01:14 2025-07-30 UTC+2

USD/CAD – Analysis and Forecast

Today, USD/CAD extended its gains for the fourth consecutive day, supported by steady buying interest in the U.S. dollar. Additionally, a slight decline in crude oil prices is weighing

Irina Yanina 18:04 2025-07-29 UTC+2

XAU/USD – Analysis and Forecast

Over the weekend, a trade agreement was reached between the United States and the European Union, which added to the optimism sparked by the recent U.S.–Japan deal and eased fears

Irina Yanina 17:59 2025-07-29 UTC+2

FOMC Meeting Comes into Focus (Potential for Continued Decline in EUR/USD and GBP/USD)

While market participants continue to assess the real prospects of a U.S. "takeover" of Europe and its economy, believing that any certainty is better than none, attention is shifting toward

Pati Gani 10:44 2025-07-29 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.