Macroeconomic reports review:

On Tuesday, services and manufacturing PMI data for September will be released in Germany, the Eurozone, the UK, and the US. Recall that in the US, the "domestic" ISM PMI figures are published, which carry much more weight for traders. Meanwhile, European indices are released in a single version, making them worth paying attention to. The market's reaction will depend on whether actual figures deviate from forecasts. The greater the deviation, the stronger the reaction.

Fundamental events review:

Among Tuesday's fundamental events, Jerome Powell's speech is certainly the highlight. Although his last appearance was tied to the Fed meeting (so he couldn't avoid discussing monetary policy), today he may provide additional remarks that reassure the market about the Fed's dovish stance. We believe Powell's speech is far more likely to trigger another decline in the US dollar than the opposite. In any case, the Fed's outlook is already dovish, meaning this event brings no upside for the dollar.

General conclusions:

On the second trading day of the week, both currency pairs could resume declines, but the downtrend exists only for the pound. The euro had no real reasons for last week's drop. In addition, today brings a large set of macroeconomic reports, which could leave their mark on both pairs. Therefore, it is better to trade according to technical levels and in line with the tone of the data.

Key rules of the trading system:

1. Signal strength is measured by the time it took to form (rebound or breakout). The less time, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more false signals appear around a level, all subsequent ones from that level should be ignored.
3. In flat conditions, a pair may generate many false signals or none at all. In any case, it's best to stop trading at the first signs of flat.
4. Trades should be opened between the start of the European session and mid-US session, after which all trades should be closed manually.
5. On the hourly timeframe, MACD signals should be traded only when volatility is strong and the trend is confirmed by a trendline or channel.
6. If two levels are very close (5–20 points), treat them as a support or resistance area.
7. After a 15–20 point move in the right direction, Stop Loss should be moved to breakeven.

What's on the charts:

• Support and resistance levels: price targets for opening buys or sells. Take Profit orders can be set nearby.
• Red lines: channels or trendlines showing the current trend and the preferred direction of trading.
• MACD (14,22,3): histogram and signal line – an auxiliary indicator that can also be used for signals.

Important: Major speeches and reports (always listed in the economic calendar) can strongly affect currency pair movements. During such events, trade with maximum caution or exit the market to avoid sharp reversals against the prior move.

Note for beginners: Not every trade can be profitable. A clear strategy and money management are key to long-term success in trading.