Trade Review and Advice on Trading the Japanese Yen

A test of the 148.45 price level occurred when the MACD indicator was starting to move up from the zero line, which confirmed the correct entry point for buying the dollar. As a result, the pair rose by more than 30 pips.

Today, strong data on wage growth and Japan's Leading Economic Indicators Index were released, supporting the yen. Rising wages, which reflect improving consumer confidence and increased purchasing power, are key to sustainable economic growth. The leading indicators index, in turn, provides valuable insights into future economic activity and helps forecast potential changes in the economy. The published figures indicate that the Japanese economy continues to show signs of recovery. However, yen support from these positive reports may be short-lived, since important US labor market data is ahead and could change everything.

For intraday strategy, I will focus primarily on Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenario

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY when the entry point around 148.30 (green line on the chart) is reached, aiming for a rise to 148.65 (thicker green line). Around 148.65, I plan to exit buys and open sell trades in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35 pips move in the other direction). It's best to return to USD/JPY buys on pullbacks and significant corrections. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above zero and just beginning to rise.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of the 148.08 price when the MACD is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and trigger a reversal upward. Growth to the opposite levels of 148.30 and 148.65 can be expected.

Sell Scenario

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to sell USD/JPY only after breaking below the 148.08 level (red line on the chart), which should lead to a sharp decline. The main target for sellers will be 147.76, where I plan to exit shorts and immediately open buys in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 pips move back the other way). It is best to sell as high as possible. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below zero and starting to decline.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 148.30 level while MACD is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upside potential and trigger a reversal downward. A decline to the opposite levels of 148.06 and 147.76 can be expected.

What's on the Chart:

Thin green line – entry price at which the instrument can be bought.

Thick green line – suggested price for taking profit or manually securing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.

Thin red line – entry price at which the instrument can be sold.

Thick red line – suggested price for taking profit or manually securing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.

MACD indicator: When entering the market, it is important to refer to overbought and oversold areas.

Important. Beginner forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making entry decisions. Before important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during the release of news, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade large volumes. And remember: for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan, as I described above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation from moment to moment is a losing strategy for an intraday trader.