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05.08.2025 01:07 PM
Stock Market on August 5: S&P 500 and NASDAQ recover some ground

At the close of trading on August 5, US stock indices regained part of Friday's losses. The S&P 500 rose by 1.47%, while the Nasdaq 100 added 1.95%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 1.34%.

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Asian indices climbed today amid dip-buying and growing expectations of possible interest rate cuts. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose by 0.7%, led primarily by South Korea. Futures on the S&P 500 were up 0.2% following the index's strongest one-day rally since May. European equity futures climbed 0.4%. US Treasury yields edged slightly lower across the curve, although the yield on 2-year notes, sensitive to monetary policy expectations, rose by more than 2 basis points to 3.70%. The US dollar index strengthened by 0.1%.

Oil stabilized after a three-day slide as investors reassessed the risks to Russian supply following US President Donald Trump's renewed pledge to penalize India for its purchases of Russian crude.

Traders are increasingly pricing in a Federal Reserve rate cut following Friday's weak jobs report, which triggered a sharp stock sell-off and a strong rally in bonds. The soft labor data sparked concerns over a slowdown in economic growth, prompting a rethinking of the Fed's monetary policy outlook. Instead of a cautious pause, markets are now leaning toward a more accommodative stance aimed at supporting the economy amid signs of a potential downturn.

This shift in sentiment has significantly impacted asset classes. On one hand, the prior stock market decline reflected investor anxiety over corporate earnings in a weakening economy. On the other, the sharp rise in bond prices pointed to a flight to safety as investors sought shelter from volatility.

Stocks rebounded yesterday from April lows, buoyed by optimism that corporate America can weather the effects of new tariffs and that the U.S. economy may avoid recession. Following the employment report, markets estimated an 80% probability of a Fed rate cut at the next meeting. After Monday's session, that probability rose to nearly 95%.

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San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said that the time for rate cuts is approaching, citing growing evidence of a cooling labor market and the absence of lasting inflation from tariffs, Reuters reported. "I was willing to wait another cycle, but I can't wait forever," Daly said, referring to the Fed's decision last week.

As for the technical outlook for the S&P 500, the key task for buyers today is to break through the nearest resistance at $6,335, which could allow for further gains toward $6,364. Gaining control above $6,373 would further solidify the bulls' position. On the downside, if risk appetite fades, buyers must hold the line around $6,343. A breakdown would quickly push the instrument back to $6331 and potentially open the path to $6,220.

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Pavel Vlasov
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