Let's return to the negotiations with Canada. Donald Trump also accused the Canadians of using "fake advertising," acting "fraudulently." According to the U.S. president, the goal of this commercial is to influence the U.S. Supreme Court's decision, which will consider the legality of all of Trump's tariffs in November. It should be noted that negotiations with Canada have not been particularly productive. The parties cannot agree on several key issues, so I do not rule out that Trump, in his typical fashion, decided to stimulate his opponent a bit to make him more amenable. This tactic is something we have long grown accustomed to.

The commercial features a recording of former U.S. President Ronald Reagan from 1987, in which he states that trade barriers harm American workers and consumers, leading to increased unemployment. This is precisely what we are currently observing in America. The labor market is "cooling," unemployment is rising, and prices for many goods and services are increasing. After all, it is American consumers who will bear the costs of tariffs, not China or the European Union, as imported goods become more expensive.

Additionally, the White House administration plans to sue Ontario, as the Canadian province did not seek permission to use the recording of the former U.S. president. Reagan himself believed that some trade tariffs could be beneficial, but they should be targeted and in no way contradict the policy of free trade. Reagan's principles worked in America for about 40 years until Donald Trump was elected president for the first time.

Meanwhile, the authorities in Ontario are urging Canada to "stand firm" against the U.S. and to limit the export of energy resources and minerals to America. The province believes that Trump's tariffs have already caused irreparable harm to many Canadian manufacturers, forcing them to cut jobs and reduce production volumes. Consequently, tensions are rising not only between China and the U.S. but also between Canada and the U.S. The global trade war will continue to grow and expand. One should not expect a swift resolution. The only expectation is a further decline of the U.S. dollar as the market stops ignoring objective reality.

Wave Structure Analysis for EUR/USD:

Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument continues to build an upward trend segment. Currently, the market is in a pause, but Trump's policies and the Fed's remain significant factors in the U.S. dollar's decline. The targets for the current trend segment could reach the 25 figure. We are presently observing the formation of corrective wave 4, which is taking on a very complex and elongated shape. Therefore, I continue to consider only long positions in the near future. I expect the euro to reach 1.2245 by the end of the year, which corresponds to 200.0% on the Fibonacci scale.

Wave Structure Analysis for GBP/USD:

The wave structure of GBP/USD has evolved. We continue to deal with a bullish, impulsive segment of the trend, but its internal wave structure is becoming more complex. Wave 4 is taking on a three-wave form, and its structure is proving to be significantly more extended than that of wave 2. The next downward three-wave structure is presumed to be complete, but it could potentially complicate further. If that is indeed the case, the upward movement of the instrument within the global wave structure may resume, with initial targets around the 38 and 40 figures, although a correction is ongoing at this time.

Key Principles of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and understandable. Complex structures are difficult to trade and often carry changes.
2. If there is uncertainty in what is happening in the market, it is better not to enter.
3. There can never be 100% certainty in the direction of movement. Always remember to use protective stop-loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.