Trade Review and Advice on Trading the Euro

The price test at 1.1690 occurred at a moment when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero line, which limited the pair's downside potential.

In the second half of the day, everyone will be closely watching the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, both including and excluding food and energy prices. An increase in these indicators will likely support the dollar while putting pressure on the euro. The data will influence the Fed's decision as it will shed light on price trends. It's worth noting that despite a recent slight decrease in inflationary pressure, it still significantly exceeds the target level. The reaction of the currency markets to the inflation data will depend on how unexpected the numbers are. If inflation turns out to be much higher than forecast, it will likely trigger a sharp reaction: the dollar will strengthen while the euro will weaken. Otherwise, if inflation is lower than expected, the dollar may lose ground and the euro will strengthen—as happened yesterday.

As for the intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenario

Scenario No. 1: Today, you can buy the euro when the price reaches around 1.1692 (the green line on the chart), aiming for a rise to the 1.1764 level. At 1.1764, I plan to exit the market and sell the euro in the opposite direction, anticipating a 30–35 pip move from the entry point. You should only expect further euro growth if there is a sharp drop in US inflation. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just starting to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1667 price level at a time when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the downside potential of the pair and lead to an upward reversal. A rise to the opposite levels of 1.1692 and 1.1764 can be expected.

Sell Scenario

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after it reaches the 1.1667 level (the red line on the chart). The target will be the 1.1597 level, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 pip move in the opposite direction from the level). Downward pressure on the pair is expected to return if there is news of a sharp increase in US inflation. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just starting to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1692 price level at a time when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. A decline to the opposite levels of 1.1667 and 1.1597 can be expected.

What's on the Chart:

Thin green line – entry price at which the instrument can be bought.

Thick green line – suggested price for taking profit or manually securing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.

Thin red line – entry price at which the instrument can be sold.

Thick red line – suggested price for taking profit or manually securing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.

MACD indicator: When entering the market, it is important to refer to overbought and oversold areas.

Important. Beginner forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making entry decisions. Before important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during the release of news, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade large volumes. And remember: for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan, as I described above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation from moment to moment is a losing strategy for an intraday trader.