Trade review and tips on trading the Japanese yen

Due to low market volatility, the outlined levels were not tested in the first half of the day, so I remained without trades.

During the U.S. session, data will be released on changes in nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate. A sharp decline in employment will trigger dollar selling and yen appreciation. This forecast is based on the fundamental link between U.S. economic health, Federal Reserve policy, and the perception of the yen as a safe-haven asset. The dollar, long considered the undisputed leader of the global currency system, will inevitably weaken if the data point to a serious slowdown in job growth. Investors will see this as a sign of a lower likelihood of further Fed rate hikes, making dollar assets less attractive.

By contrast, the Japanese yen is traditionally viewed as a safe-haven asset. In times of economic uncertainty and heightened risk, investors seek to protect their capital by shifting to more stable currencies such as the yen. Demand for the yen will therefore increase, strengthening it against the dollar and other currencies.

In addition, reports will be released on changes in average hourly earnings, offering a clearer picture of the U.S. labor market. Another important indicator is private-sector employment. Public-sector figures are often distorted by political factors, whereas the private sector is more sensitive to real economic growth. A significant increase in private-sector jobs will confirm the resilience of the U.S. economy and support the dollar.

As for intraday strategy, I will rely more on scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy signal

Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today at the entry point around 148.30 (green line on the chart), with an upward target at 149.30 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 149.30, I will exit long positions and open shorts in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30–35 point pullback from the level. A rise in the pair will only be possible after strong data. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just starting to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of 148.08, at a time when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a reversal upward. Growth toward the opposite levels of 148.30 and 149.30 can be expected.

Sell signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today after a breakout of 148.08 (red line on the chart), which will lead to a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 146.84, where I will exit shorts and immediately open longs in the opposite direction, aiming for a 20–25 point pullback from the level. Downward pressure on the pair will return in the case of weak data. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just starting to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of 148.30, at a time when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a reversal downward. A decline toward the opposite levels of 148.08 and 146.84 can be expected.

What's on the chart:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;
• Thick green line – estimated price for setting Take Profit or manually fixing profit, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;
• Thick red line – estimated price for setting Take Profit or manually fixing profit, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to follow overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Beginner traders in the Forex market must be very cautious when making entry decisions. Before the release of major fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one I presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.