The wave pattern for GBP/USD continues to indicate the development of a bullish impulse structure. The wave configuration is almost identical to that of EUR/USD, as the only real driver here is the U.S. dollar. Demand for it is declining across the market (in the medium term), which is why many instruments are showing nearly the same dynamics. Currently, a corrective set of waves within wave 4 is being formed. If this assumption is correct, the instrument's decline may already be over, as the structure now shows a classical and apparently completed three-wave form.

It is important to remember that much in the currency market today depends on Donald Trump's policies—and not just trade-related ones. Occasionally, positive news comes out of the U.S., but the market remains preoccupied with ongoing uncertainty, contradictory decisions and statements from Trump, and the White House's hostile, protectionist stance in foreign policy. In the coming weeks, the market will need to navigate a mix of conflicting data on GDP, inflation, labor market performance, new tariffs, and Trump's nuclear threats.

The GBP/USD pair rose slightly again on Wednesday, and the movement range remains narrow. It is still clear that the market is not rushing into trading decisions. However, this pause doesn't mean that there's no interest in selling the U.S. dollar. In my view, there are many reasons for renewed pressure on the dollar right now. I won't list them again, as my recent reviews have already covered them extensively.

I believe the market will not overlook the fact that the Federal Reserve may resume its monetary policy easing cycle as early as the next meeting. It's worth noting that market participants frequently expect a rate cut but fail to correctly predict the timing. Now seems to be the moment when the FOMC might shift from promises and pauses to concrete action. If demand for the U.S. dollar steadily declined in the first half of the year due to Trump's trade war, what should we expect now—with the trade war continuing and the Fed showing readiness to cut rates? To me, the answer is clear.

The Bank of England meeting scheduled for tomorrow is a background event. The BoE currently has limited influence and can only affect the British pound. I think it's widely accepted that over the past six months, it has been the weakening of the dollar that has driven the pound's solid gains. Consequently, the dynamics of GBP/USD (like EUR/USD) are around 80% dependent on the U.S. dollar. And the fate of the U.S. dollar depends on Trump's policies, the Fed's monetary stance, and the level of confidence in a currency issued by a country whose president is trying to turn the novel 1984 into reality. In my opinion, GBP/USD is likely to continue rising.

General Conclusions

The wave pattern for GBP/USD remains unchanged. We are looking at a bullish impulse trend segment. Under Donald Trump, markets may face many more shocks and reversals that could significantly affect the wave structure. However, at this stage, the main scenario remains intact. The target for the upward trend segment is now around 1.4017. I currently assume that the formation of corrective wave 4 has been completed. Therefore, I expect the upward set of waves to resume and am considering long positions with a target of 1.4017.

Key Principles of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex formations are hard to trade and often shift.
2. If you're uncertain about the market situation, it's better to stay out.
3. Absolute certainty in market direction is never possible. Always use protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.