Trade Analysis and Tips for the Euro

The test of the 1.1726 level coincided with the MACD indicator moving significantly above the zero line, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the euro.

Due to the lack of economic reports from the Eurozone, the EUR/USD pair remained within a narrow range. Market participants chose to adopt a wait-and-see approach, avoiding risk. From a technical standpoint, EUR/USD continues to consolidate within a channel, and only a breakout above the upper boundary of the range may trigger growth. Conversely, a breakout below the lower boundary will restore downward momentum. However, all of this will depend on the data expected later in the day.

That said, since the calendar only includes U.S. wholesale inventory data and the release of the Federal Reserve meeting minutes, strong moves in EUR/USD are unlikely. Attention will clearly be focused on the Fed minutes, where traders will look for clues about the regulator's future actions. However, even if the minutes turn out to be unexpectedly dovish or hawkish, the market reaction may remain muted. Investors have become accustomed to the Fed's cautious tone and tend to avoid sharp movements ahead of more significant macroeconomic reports.

As for the intraday strategy, I will focus primarily on executing scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, you can buy the euro when the price reaches the area of 1.1726 (green line on the chart), with a target of 1.1764. At 1.1764, I plan to exit the market and also consider selling the euro in the opposite direction, expecting a move of 30–35 points from the entry point. Strong euro growth today is unlikely.Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1698 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This would limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a market reversal to the upside. A rise toward the opposite levels of 1.1726 and 1.1764 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after the price reaches the 1.1698 level (red line on the chart). The target will be the 1.1654 level, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 20–25 points in the opposite direction from this level). Downward pressure on the pair is likely to persist today.Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1726 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This would limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a market reversal to the downside. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1698 and 1.1654 can be expected.

Chart Notes:

• Thin green line – entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument;
• Thick green line – assumed price where Take Profit can be placed or profits manually fixed, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument;
• Thick red line – assumed price where Take Profit can be placed or profits manually fixed, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to use the overbought and oversold zones.

Important:Beginner traders in the Forex market must be extremely cautious when making entry decisions. Before the release of key fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Trading without stop-losses can quickly lead to the loss of your entire deposit, especially if you don't use proper money management and trade with large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan like the one I have outlined above. Making impulsive trading decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for any intraday trader.