Trade Analysis and Recommendations for the Euro

The price test at 1.1554 occurred when the MACD indicator had just started moving downward from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for selling the euro. However, the trade resulted in a loss. The pair then rose. When the price tested 1.1571, the MACD indicator had just begun to move upward from the zero line, allowing a buy of the euro. However, the growth amounted to only about 10 points, after which buying activity subsided.

A decline in investor confidence in the eurozone economy hindered the EUR/USD's growth in the first half of the trading session. Traders, concerned about the region's economic stability, showed restraint, preventing the euro from entering a new bullish cycle. From a technical analysis perspective, the chances for further EUR/USD growth remain fairly good.

Since there are no major U.S. economic data releases scheduled for the second half of the day, market focus will likely shift to the situation surrounding the U.S. government shutdown. Investors are closely watching developments in Washington, fearing that a prolonged budget crisis could negatively impact the U.S. economy. The potential resolution of the shutdown situation could spur demand for riskier assets, weakening the dollar. Therefore, the EUR/USD's movement in the second half of the day will likely depend on news from Washington and changes in risk sentiment.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely mainly on scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, buying the euro is possible when the price reaches around 1.1580 (green line on the chart), targeting growth to 1.1599. At 1.1599, I plan to exit the market and open a sell position in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30–35 point move from the entry point. One can count on euro growth today only if Federal Reserve officials take a dovish stance.Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just starting to move upward.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1549 level at a time when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upward. One can expect growth toward the opposite levels of 1.1580 and 1.1599.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after the price reaches 1.1549 (red line on the chart). The target is 1.1528, where I plan to exit the market and immediately open a buy position in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point move from the level). Pressure on the pair will return if negotiations fail.Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to move downward.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1580 level at a time when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and cause a market reversal downward. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1549 and 1.1528 can be expected.

Chart Legend

• Thin green line – entry price where the instrument can be bought
• Thick green line – projected level for placing Take Profit or manually locking in profit, as further growth above this level is unlikely
• Thin red line – entry price where the instrument can be sold
• Thick red line – projected level for placing Take Profit or manually locking in profit, as further decline below this level is unlikely
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to rely on overbought and oversold zones

Important Note

Beginner Forex traders should be very cautious when making market entry decisions. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you ignore money management and trade with large volumes.

And remember: for successful trading, you must have a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.