Trade Analysis and Recommendations for the European Currency

The price test of 1.1626 occurred at a moment when the MACD indicator had just begun to move upward from the zero line, confirming the correct entry point for buying the euro. However, the pair failed to grow afterward, resulting in a loss. The euro then moved downward, updating the 1.1611 level. This update happened as the MACD began moving down from the zero line, leading to a sell scenario with a normal 30-point move.

The interest in the euro seen at the end of last week has not recovered. The easing of U.S. pressure on China has increased the chances of a new trade agreement, which has positively affected the dollar's position. Since it's far from certain that the Federal Reserve will continue its policy of gradually lowering interest rates, the popularity of the U.S. dollar remains strong. This factor, in turn, continues to put pressure on the European currency.

There are no major macroeconomic data releases from the U.S. scheduled for the second half of today. Therefore, the foreign exchange market is expected to experience a relatively calm period, with currency movements determined mainly by news about U.S.–China relations. Most market participants prefer to stay on the sidelines, analyzing the sustainability of the current dollar rally and the potential for a trend reversal.

As for the intraday strategy, I'll mainly rely on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, you can buy the euro when the price reaches around 1.1599 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 1.1624. At 1.1624, I plan to exit the market and open a short position, expecting a 30–35 point movement from the entry point. You can count on euro growth today only if tensions escalate. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just starting to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro if the price tests 1.1584 twice in a row, while the MACD is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upward. A rise to the opposite levels of 1.1599 and 1.1624 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after the price reaches 1.1584 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1562, where I intend to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point reversal from that level). Pressure on the pair may return at any moment today. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just starting to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro if the price tests 1.1599 twice in a row, while the MACD is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1584 and 1.1562 can be expected.

Chart Notes

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;
• Thick green line – expected price level for placing Take Profit or manually locking in profit, since further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;
• Thick red line – expected price level for placing Take Profit or manually locking in profit, since further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it's important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important Note

Beginner traders in the Forex market should make entry decisions with great caution. Before the release of major fundamental reports, it's best to stay out of the market to avoid getting caught in sharp price swings. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you ignore money management and trade large volumes.

And remember: to trade successfully, you must have a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market movements is an inherently losing strategy for intraday traders.