Trade analysis and tips for trading the Japanese yen

The price test of 147.70 occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero mark, which limited the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the dollar. A bit later, the update at 147.95 coincided with the beginning of the MACD's upward move from the zero mark, which confirmed the correct entry point for buying, although the pair rose only 15 points.

During the U.S. session, no American statistics are scheduled, so the focus will shift to the speech by FOMC member Thomas Barkin. A hawkish stance from Barkin could provide further support to the USD/JPY pair. The pair's current dynamics clearly demonstrate the dominance of a bullish trend, and Barkin's remarks will likely act as a catalyst for further strengthening of the dollar against the yen. The market remains highly sensitive to even minor hints of changes in Fed policy, and hawkish rhetoric backed by strong economic data could trigger a new wave of USD/JPY buying. The Japanese yen, meanwhile, remains under pressure due to the Bank of Japan's wait-and-see monetary policy. The difference in the approaches of the two central banks creates favorable conditions for USD/JPY growth, and as long as the BoJ shows no readiness to shift its stance, the yen's strengthening potential looks very limited.

As for intraday strategy, I will rely primarily on Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY around the entry point of 148.26 (green line on the chart) with a target at 148.60 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 148.60, I will exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30–35 point pullback. Growth in the pair can be expected within the upward trend. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of the 147.96 level when the MACD is in oversold territory. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a reversal upward. Growth toward 148.26 and 148.60 can then be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY after breaking below 147.96 (red line on the chart), which would trigger a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 147.60, where I will exit shorts and immediately open longs in the opposite direction, aiming for a 20–25 point bounce. Pressure on the pair will return only in the case of a very dovish stance from Barkin. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of the 148.26 level when the MACD is in overbought territory. This will limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a reversal downward. A decline toward 147.96 and 147.60 can then be expected.

What's on the chart:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the instrument;
• Thick green line – projected level for placing Take Profit or fixing profit manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the instrument;
• Thick red line – projected level for placing Take Profit or fixing profit manually, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market should be very cautious when making entry decisions. Ahead of major fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you neglect money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, for successful trading you need a clear trading plan, like the one outlined above. Spontaneous decisions based solely on the current market situation are an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.