Trade Review and Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen

The test of the 147.81 level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero line, which limited the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the dollar and missed a good downward move.

In the second half of the day, market participants are closely monitoring speeches by FOMC members Thomas Barkin, Austan D. Goolsbee, and Raphael Bostic. Their interpretation of yesterday's inflation data and possible strategy adjustments will be the key focus. Of particular interest are their views on the optimal interest rate level and the pace of its future reductions. Given the differences of opinion within the FOMC, their perspectives may offer insight into potential compromises and agreements shaping the regulator's policy. Attention will also be paid to their assessment of the current economic situation and development prospects. What are their forecasts regarding the risk of a recession? Do they see signs of a recovery in consumer demand? The answers to these questions will help market participants better understand the Fed's plans and adjust their expectations. A clear understanding of the Fed's future policy is essential for maintaining stability in financial markets and ensuring sustainable economic growth.

As for the intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY at the entry point around 147.35 (green line on the chart) with the target of rising to 147.65 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 147.65, I will exit buy positions and open sell trades in the opposite direction, aiming for a move of 30–35 points in the opposite direction from the level. A strong upward move in the pair is unlikely today. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just starting to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 147.17 level when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal upward. Growth can be expected toward the opposite levels of 147.35 and 147.65.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to sell USD/JPY after breaking below the 147.17 level (red line on the chart), which will lead to a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 146.66, where I will exit sell positions and immediately open buy trades in the opposite direction (aiming for a move of 20–25 points in the opposite direction from the level). Downward pressure on the pair is expected to persist today in the context of a bearish market. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just starting to fall from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 147.35 level when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal downward. A decline can be expected toward the opposite levels of 147.17 and 146.66.

Chart Details:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the instrument;
• Thick green line – expected price for placing Take Profit orders or manually fixing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the instrument;
• Thick red line – expected price for placing Take Profit orders or manually fixing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold areas.

Important: Beginner Forex traders should be very cautious when making entry decisions. Before the release of major fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you do not use money management and trade with large volumes.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.