Trade analysis and trading advice for the British pound

The test of the 1.3827 price level occurred at a moment when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move downward from the zero line, which confirmed a correct entry point for selling the pound. As a result, the pair fell by more than 30 points.

The lack of UK economic data did not help the pound to rise. In the second half of the day, U.S. figures on initial jobless claims, the trade balance, and changes in factory orders are expected. The U.S. labor market is currently under close scrutiny by the Fed, and a decline in initial jobless claims could become a catalyst for U.S. dollar strength. Investors would interpret this as confirmation of economic resilience, which would increase the attractiveness of the U.S. currency. The trade balance is also of great importance. A reduction in the trade deficit as a result of Trump's tariffs would be seen as a positive signal for the U.S. economy and, consequently, for the dollar.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to buy the pound when the price reaches the entry level around 1.3804 (green line on the chart), with a target of growth toward the 1.3832 level (the thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3832, I plan to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 30–35 points from that level). Pound growth today can be expected after weak labor market data.Important: Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just starting to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the pound today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 1.3768 price level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This would limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal of the market upward. A rise toward the opposite levels of 1.3804 and 1.3832 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the pound today after a break below the 1.3768 level (red line on the chart), which would lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 1.3745 level, where I plan to exit short positions and also open immediate buy positions in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 20–25 points in the opposite direction from that level). Pressure on the pound will return today in the event of strong economic data.Important: Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just starting to fall from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the pound today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 1.3804 price level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This would limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal of the market downward. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.3768 and 1.3745 can be expected.

What's on the Chart:

• Thin green line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – estimated price at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – estimated price at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to rely on overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner Forex traders should be very cautious when making market entry decisions. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.