Trade Analysis and Advice for the British Pound

The test of the price at 1.3335 occurred when the MACD indicator was starting to move upwards from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for buying the pound and resulting in a 20-pip rise.

American inflation slowed down in October this year, leading to a weakening of the dollar and strengthening of the British pound. Published data showed that U.S. consumer prices rose below expectations. The decrease in inflationary pressures, while welcome, prompted investors to revise their forecasts of the Federal Reserve's future policy.

Today, the GBP/USD pair is unlikely to experience significant volatility, as the only important event on the economic calendar is the release of CBI retail sales data. Although CBI data reflect the condition of the consumer market and retail trade in general, they usually do not cause significant fluctuations in the currency markets. Additionally, the current economic situation in the UK is marked by high uncertainty. Therefore, unless there are surprises in the published CBI data, it is unlikely that the British pound will strengthen significantly.

As for the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on the implementation of scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy the pound today at the entry point around 1.3332 (green line on the chart), aiming to reach 1.3366 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3366, I intend to exit the longs and open shorts in the opposite direction (expecting a 30-35-pip move from the level). One can expect pound growth today only after very good reports. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the pound today if there are two consecutive tests of 1.3311 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to a market reversal. One can expect growth towards the opposite levels of 1.3332 and 1.3366.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the pound today after the 1.3311 level (red line on the chart) is reached, which will trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 1.3280 level, where I intend to exit the shorts and also open longs in the opposite direction (expecting a 20-25-pip move in the opposite direction from the level). Pound sellers will return with weak data. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the pound today if there are two consecutive tests of 1.3332 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a market reversal. One can expect a decline towards the opposite levels of 1.3311 and 1.3280.

Chart Details:

Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;

Thick green line – estimated price where take profits can be set or profits can be manually secured since further growth above this level is unlikely;

Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;

Thick red line – estimated price where take profits can be set or profits can be manually secured since further decline below this level is unlikely;

MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is crucial to be guided by the overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Beginner traders in the Forex market need to make entry decisions very cautiously. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports to avoid sharp currency fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade in large volumes.

And remember: to trade successfully, you need a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.