Trade Review and Advice on Trading the Euro

The test of the 1.1627 level occurred when the MACD indicator was starting to move down from the zero mark, which confirmed the correct entry point for selling the euro. But after moving down by 10 points, the pressure on the pair decreased.

Weak manufacturing activity figures in the US affected the value of the dollar, which limited the downside potential of the EUR/USD pair in the second half of the day. Despite signs of slowing economic growth and hints from the Fed about being ready to cut interest rates, the dollar still feels relatively confident.

Today, significant macroeconomic indicators may lead to another surge in volatility. Figures are expected for the eurozone services PMI as well as data on changes in producer prices. Equally important will be the speech of ECB President Christine Lagarde. Market participants are closely watching her comments, trying to gauge the future direction of monetary policy. Any information pointing to tighter policy could strengthen the euro, while a more cautious tone from Lagarde, on the contrary, may drive the European currency lower.

For intraday strategy, I will focus primarily on Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenario

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the euro when the price reaches the area of 1.1642 (green line on the chart) with a target of rising to 1.1669. At 1.1669, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30–35 point move from the entry point. It makes sense to count on euro growth only after good data. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD is above the zero mark and is just starting to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of 1.1623 when the MACD is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to a reversal to the upside. Growth can be expected at the opposite levels of 1.1642 and 1.1669.

Sell Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after the price reaches 1.1623 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1589, where I intend to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (looking for a 20–25 point move in the opposite direction from that level). Pressure on the pair will return today if the data is weak. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD is below the zero mark and is just starting to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 1.1642 level, when the MACD is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. A drop can be expected to the opposite levels of 1.1623 and 1.1589.

What's on the Chart:

Thin green line – entry price at which the instrument can be bought.

Thick green line – suggested price for taking profit or manually securing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.

Thin red line – entry price at which the instrument can be sold.

Thick red line – suggested price for taking profit or manually securing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.

MACD indicator: When entering the market, it is important to refer to overbought and oversold areas.

Important. Beginner forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making entry decisions. Before important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during the release of news, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade large volumes. And remember: for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan, as I described above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation from moment to moment is a losing strategy for an intraday trader.