On Thursday, EUR/USD returned to the support zone at 1.1637–1.1645, but the bears failed to push further. A rebound from this zone would favor the euro and a resumption of growth toward the 76.4% retracement level at 1.1695, and most likely even higher. A consolidation below 1.1637–1.1645 would allow traders to expect a stronger U.S. dollar move toward 1.1590 and 1.1544.

The wave structure on the hourly chart remains straightforward. The last completed upward wave broke the high of the previous wave, while the last completed downward wave failed to break the previous low. Thus, the trend can currently be considered bullish, though it has been changing too often lately due to the news background. The latest labor market data and the changed outlook for the Fed's monetary policy support the bulls, but today's U.S.–Russia talks could also lend support to the bears.

Thursday's news background was mixed. GDP and industrial production reports in the Eurozone drew little market attention, but the U.S. Producer Price Index did. Notably, this report rarely surprises traders — it usually signals stability from month to month. However, July brought an unexpected outcome: producer prices rose 0.9% m/m and 3.3% y/y, well above forecasts. U.S. manufacturers have started raising final product prices due to global geopolitical uncertainty (Trump's trade war) and existing tariffs on imports to the U.S. As a result, U.S. inflation now looks likely to accelerate in the near term. Bears gained some short-term support from this report, but their broader position remains unchanged. The market still expects the Fed to ease monetary policy in September and again at least once more before year-end.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair turned in favor of the U.S. dollar after forming a new bearish divergence on the CCI indicator and closing below 1.1680. This could allow the decline to continue toward the 127.2% Fibonacci level at 1.1495. A reverse close above 1.1680 would work in favor of the U.S. dollar and a resumption of growth toward the 161.8% retracement level at 1.1854.

Commitments of Traders (COT) report:

During the last reporting week, professional traders closed 1,848 long positions and opened 5,916 short positions. The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" group remains bullish thanks to Donald Trump's policies, and it has been strengthening over time. Speculators now hold 247,000 long positions versus 131,000 short positions — almost a twofold difference. Also note the large number of green cells in the table above, indicating strong position building in the euro. In most cases, interest in the euro keeps rising, while interest in the dollar is falling.

For twenty-six consecutive weeks, major players have been reducing short positions and increasing longs. Donald Trump's policy remains the key factor for traders, as it may trigger many problems of a long-term and structural nature for the U.S. Despite signing several important trade agreements, some key economic indicators are showing declines.

Economic calendar for the U.S. and Eurozone:

• U.S. – Retail Sales (12:30 UTC)
• U.S. – Industrial Production (13:15 UTC)
• U.S. – University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (14:00 UTC)

On August 15, the economic calendar contains three entries, none of which are considered major. The news background may have only a mild impact on market sentiment throughout Friday, especially in the second half of the day.

EUR/USD forecast and trading tips: Selling the pair was possible after a close on the hourly chart below 1.1695, with targets at 1.1637–1.1645 and 1.1590. The first target has been met. Buying opportunities will appear on a rebound from the 1.1637–1.1645 zone on the hourly chart, with targets at 1.1695 and 1.1789.

The Fibonacci grids are built from 1.1789–1.1392 on the hourly chart and from 1.1214–1.0179 on the 4-hour chart.