Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Japanese Yen

The test of the 148.04 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had just started moving upward from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for buying the US dollar, which increased by more than 20 points.

The USD/JPY pair continued to rise as the divergence in central bank policies remains significant, putting pressure on the Japanese yen. Today's data on the growth of Japan's money supply aggregate did not provide substantial support to the USD/JPY. Contrary to what might seem a logical market reaction, the yen remained almost indifferent to the published figures, continuing to show restrained dynamics against the dollar. In the near term, investors will closely monitor speeches by Bank of Japan officials for hints of possible changes in monetary policy toward further tightening, only this could help the yen regain its appeal in the pair with the dollar.

For intraday strategy, I will focus primarily on Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenario

Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY when the entry point reaches the 148.43 area (green line on the chart) with a target of rising to the 148.97 level (thicker green line on the chart). Around 148.97, I intend to close buy positions and open sell positions in the opposite direction (aiming for a 30–35-point move in the opposite direction from the level). It is best to return to buying the pair on corrections and significant pullbacks in USD/JPY. Important: Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 148.08 price level at a time when the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward reversal. Growth toward the opposite levels of 148.43 and 148.97 can be expected.

Sell Scenario

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after the 148.08 level (red line on the chart) is updated, which will lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 147.57 level, where I intend to exit sell positions and immediately open buys in the opposite direction (aiming for a 20–25-point move in the opposite direction from the level). Selling is best done from as high a level as possible. Important: Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 148.43 price level at a time when the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a reversal downward. A decline toward the opposite levels of 148.08 and 147.55 can be expected.

What's on the Chart:

• The thin green line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be bought.
• The thick green line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price growth above this level is unlikely.
• The thin red line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be sold.
• The thick red line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price decline below this level is unlikely.
• The MACD indicator should be used to assess overbought and oversold zones when entering the market.

Important Notes:

• Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making market entry decisions. It is advisable to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid exposure to sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Trading without stop-loss orders can quickly wipe out your entire deposit, especially if you neglect money management principles and trade with high volumes.
• Remember, successful trading requires a well-defined trading plan, similar to the one outlined above. Making impulsive trading decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for intraday traders.