Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Japanese Yen

The test of the 143.94 level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved far above the zero line, which limited the pair's upside potential. For this reason, I did not buy the dollar.

Pressure on risk assets has eased despite the worsening situation in the Middle East. Several factors can explain this phenomenon. First, the market may have already partially priced in geopolitical risks, and a further significant deterioration in the situation would be required to trigger more downside. Second, investors likely see limited global economic consequences—aside from the oil market—stemming from the current conflict, believing it will not escalate into a broader regional war. Additionally, expectations of central banks to ease monetary policy support risk assets. Inflation is beginning to slow in many countries, giving central banks room to continue easing policy.

However, it's important to note that a high degree of uncertainty remains. The situation in the Middle East may change rapidly, and economic data may come in worse than expected. In such a case, pressure on risk assets could quickly return.

For intraday strategy, I will focus primarily on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenario

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY upon reaching the entry point around 144.26 (green line on the chart) with a target of rising to 144.84 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 144.84, I plan to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30–35-pip move downward from that level. It's best to return to buying the pair during corrections and significant pullbacks in USD/JPY.

Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and starting to rise.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the case of two consecutive tests of the 143.86 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. A rise toward the opposite levels of 144.26 and 144.84 can be expected.

Sell Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after a breakout below 143.86 (red line on the chart), which should lead to a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 143.22, where I plan to exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction, aiming for a 20–25 pip bounce from that level. Selling pressure on the pair could quickly return today.

Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and beginning to decline.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if the MACD indicator tests the 144.26 level twice consecutively while the pair is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a downward market reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels of 143.86 and 143.22 can be expected.

What's on the Chart:

• The thin green line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be bought.
• The thick green line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price growth above this level is unlikely.
• The thin red line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be sold.
• The thick red line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price decline below this level is unlikely.
• The MACD indicator should be used to assess overbought and oversold zones when entering the market.

Important Notes:

• Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making market entry decisions. It is advisable to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid exposure to sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Trading without stop-loss orders can quickly wipe out your entire deposit, especially if you neglect money management principles and trade with high volumes.
• Remember, successful trading requires a well-defined trading plan, similar to the one outlined above. Making impulsive trading decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for intraday traders.