Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Euro

The test of the 1.1511 level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved far below the zero line, which limited the pair's downside potential. For this reason, I did not sell the euro. I didn't see any other valid entry points into the market.

Despite favorable data showing an increase in the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, the U.S. dollar failed to strengthen against the euro. As expected, market participants focused on other, more important geopolitical developments. At the same time, the euro is demonstrating resilience despite everything going on. Support for the euro comes from expectations that the European Central Bank will adopt a wait-and-see approach to monetary policy.

Today, during the first half of the day, attention should focus solely on the release of inflation data in Italy. Around midday, a speech is scheduled by Joachim Nagel, head of the German central bank. The Italian Consumer Price Index will undoubtedly be of interest, but its impact on the overall eurozone picture will likely be limited. The speech by Joachim Nagel, President of the Bundesbank, is far more important. His comments on inflation trends, interest rate policy, and economic prospects in Germany and the broader eurozone could significantly influence market sentiment and the euro's value.

However, given the global economic instability and geopolitical tensions, even statements from senior central bank officials may remain secondary for now.

For intraday strategy, I will focus primarily on Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenario

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the euro upon reaching the area around 1.1570 (green line on the chart) with the target set at 1.1634. At 1.1634, I will exit the market and initiate a sell trade in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 30–35 pips from the entry point. However, expecting the euro to rise today may be somewhat problematic.

Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and beginning to rise.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro if the 1.1532 level is tested twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downside potential and trigger an upward reversal. A rise to the opposite levels of 1.1570 and 1.1634 may be expected.

Sell Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after it reaches the 1.1532 level (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1469, where I plan to exit the market and immediately initiate a buy position in the opposite direction, aiming for a 20–25 pip movement back from the level. Selling pressure on the pair may return at any moment today.

Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and starting to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 1.1570 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upside potential and trigger a downward reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1532 and 1.1469 can be expected.

What's on the Chart:

• The thin green line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be bought.
• The thick green line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price growth above this level is unlikely.
• The thin red line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be sold.
• The thick red line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price decline below this level is unlikely.
• The MACD indicator should be used to assess overbought and oversold zones when entering the market.

Important Notes:

• Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making market entry decisions. It is advisable to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid exposure to sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Trading without stop-loss orders can quickly wipe out your entire deposit, especially if you neglect money management principles and trade with high volumes.
• Remember, successful trading requires a well-defined trading plan, similar to the one outlined above. Making impulsive trading decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for intraday traders.