10.11.202515:02:59UTC+00US 10-Year Treasury Yield Little Changed

On Monday, the yield on the US 10-year Treasury note remained relatively stable at approximately 4.1%, following an earlier increase of nearly 5 basis points. Investors were buoyed by progress in efforts to end the government shutdown. The Senate, in a procedural vote, successfully advanced the initial phase of an agreement to reopen the government, garnering the essential 60 votes. Notably, eight Democratic senators diverged from their party leadership by foregoing their primary demand for guaranteed extensions of Obamacare subsidies. The deal aims to finance the Departments of Agriculture, Veterans Affairs, Congress, and several other agencies until January 30. However, it excludes a key priority for Democrats: the extension of enhanced Affordable Care Act tax credits. The proposal still requires further debate and passage in the Senate, followed by approval in the House, where its fate is still uncertain. Concurrently, the market is factoring in a roughly 67% likelihood of a 25 basis point cut in the fed funds rate next month, maintaining the same probability as observed on Friday.