Trade Review and Tips for Trading the Euro

The test of the price level 1.1565 coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator began to move downward from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for selling euros and resulting in the pair's decline of more than 40 pips.

Ambiguous statements from officials of the US Federal Reserve, asserting that the final decision on interest rates for December is still pending, led to increased demand for the dollar and, consequently, a weakening of the euro. Investors, who were previously confident in an acceleration of monetary policy easing, are now forced to adjust their forecasts, further exacerbating the situation for the European currency.

Today, the final business activity index for the manufacturing sector in the Eurozone is expected. However, despite the anticipated quiet period, the market could react to any deviations from the preliminary estimates, even slight ones. A deterioration in the index may trigger a wave of euro sales, while an unexpected increase above the preliminary estimate published in mid-October could breathe new life into the currency. It is also essential to monitor comments from central bank officials. Their rhetoric regarding future monetary policy and inflation prospects may have a much more significant impact on the euro's exchange rate than today's data.

For my intraday trading strategy, I will primarily focus on implementing Scenarios 1 and 2.

Buy Scenarios

• Scenario No. 1: Today, buy euros if the price reaches around 1.1554 (green line on the chart) with a target for growth to the level of 1.1572. I plan to exit the market at 1.1572 and consider selling euros in the opposite direction, expecting a 30-35-pip move from the entry point. Note that growth in the euro can only be anticipated within the corrective framework. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and rising from it.
• Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy euros today if the price tests 1.1532 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the downside potential of the pair and lead to an upward market reversal. Growth can then be expected towards the opposite levels of 1.1554 and 1.1572.

Sell Scenarios

• Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell euros once the price reaches 1.1532 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1515, where I intend to exit the market and buy back immediately in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 20-25 pips from that level). Pressure on the pair could return at any moment today. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and starting to decline from it.
• Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell euros today if the price tests 1.1554 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the upside potential of the pair and lead to a market reversal downward. A decrease can be expected towards opposite levels of 1.1532 and 1.1515.

What the Chart Shows:

• Thin Green Line: Entry price at which one can buy the trading instrument.
• Thick Green Line: Expected price level to set Take Profit or manually secure profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin Red Line: Entry price at which one can sell the trading instrument.
• Thick Red Line: Expected price level to set Take Profit or manually secure profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD Indicator: When entering the market, it's crucial to be guided by overbought and oversold areas.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market must make trading decisions cautiously. Before the release of crucial fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sudden price swings. If trading during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, as presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.