Trade Analysis and Recommendations for the Japanese Yen

The price test of 152.04 in the first half of the day occurred when the MACD indicator had just started to move upward from the zero line, confirming the correct entry point for buying the dollar. As a result, the pair rose by 45 points.

Since the second half of the day will not bring any significant U.S. economic releases, it's reasonable to assume that major market participants will act more cautiously. Market fluctuations will continue to be driven by news related to U.S.–China relations. In the current environment, even a minor report concerning trade relations could instantly affect financial markets. Therefore, traders and investors are expected to remain on high alert, ready to react quickly to the slightest changes in statements or policies from either side.

It's also important to remember why the Japanese yen weakened throughout the previous week. If the new trade conflict is quickly resolved, pressure on the yen could soon return, reinforced by ongoing domestic political tensions in Japan.

As for the intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today when the price reaches around 152.34 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 152.73 (thicker green line on the chart). Near 152.73, I intend to exit long positions and open shorts in the opposite direction, expecting a 30–35 point retracement from that level. You can expect further pair growth as part of the ongoing upward trend.Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY if the price tests 152.10 twice in a row while the MACD is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal upward. A rise to the opposite levels of 152.34 and 152.73 can then be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY after the price breaks below 152.10 (red line on the chart), which could trigger a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 151.65, where I plan to exit shorts and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction, expecting a 20–25 point rebound from that level. Selling pressure on the pair could return if trade relations worsen.Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to move downward from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY if the price tests 152.34 twice in a row while the MACD is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal downward. A decline toward 152.10 and 151.65 can then be expected.

Chart Notes

• Thin green line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – approximate level for placing a Take Profit or manually locking in profit, since further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – approximate level for placing a Take Profit or manually locking in profit, since further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it's important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important Note

Beginner Forex traders should be extremely cautious when making market entry decisions. Before the release of major fundamental reports, it's best to stay out of the market to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses.

Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you ignore money management and trade with large volumes.

And remember: to trade successfully, you must have a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is an inherently losing strategy for intraday traders.