Trade Analysis and Recommendations for the British Pound

The price test of 1.3341 occurred when the MACD indicator had just begun moving downward from the zero line. This confirmed the correct entry point for selling the pound and resulted in a decline of more than 25 points.

The lack of U.K. economic data has brought pressure back on the GBP/USD pair. Investors are likely avoiding open long positions while waiting for new U.S. data — though such releases are unlikely today. Technical analysis points to a bearish trend, so traders should be extremely cautious with buying positions.

Given that there are also no significant U.S. macroeconomic releases in the second half of the day, larger market participants are expected to act more cautiously. In the current environment, even minor headlines related to trade negotiations or geopolitical tensions can trigger an instant reaction in financial markets. This creates an atmosphere of uncertainty and anxiety, prompting many traders to remain on the sidelines.

As for the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy the pound today when the price reaches around 1.3355 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 1.3381 (thicker green line on the chart). Near 1.3381, I plan to close long positions and open short ones in the opposite direction, expecting a 30–35 point pullback from that level. A strong rally in the pound today is unlikely. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the pound if the price tests 1.3315 twice in a row while the MACD is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal upward. A rise to the opposite levels of 1.3355 and 1.3381 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the pound after the price breaks below 1.3315 (red line on the chart), which could trigger a sharp drop in the pair. The sellers' key target will be 1.3284, where I plan to close short positions and open long ones in the opposite direction, expecting a 20–25 point rebound from that level. The pound could experience a significant decline later in the day. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to move downward from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the pound if the price tests 1.3355 twice in a row while the MACD is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline toward 1.3315 and 1.3284 can be expected.

Chart Notes

• Thin green line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – approximate price level for placing a Take Profit or manually locking in profit, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – approximate price level for placing a Take Profit or manually locking in profit, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it's important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important Note

Beginner Forex traders should make market entry decisions with great caution. Before the release of major fundamental reports, it's best to stay out of the market to avoid getting caught in sharp price swings. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses.

Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you ignore money management principles and trade large volumes.

And remember: for successful trading, you must have a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for intraday traders.