Trade Review and Tips for Trading the British Pound

The price test of 1.3450 occurred when the MACD indicator had just begun moving downward from the zero line, which confirmed a correct entry point for selling the pound. As a result, the pair fell by only 15 points.

Sellers of the pound, lacking the necessary support from major players, quickly retreated. Now all eyes are on the release of U.S. consumer confidence data and durable goods orders. Investors typically pay close attention to U.S. macroeconomic statistics, as they set the tone for the pair's further movement. A decline in consumer confidence may heighten concerns about slowing growth in the world's largest economy. This, in turn, would weaken the dollar and open the way for the pound to strengthen. Similarly, a drop in durable goods orders is a negative signal for the manufacturing sector and the economy as a whole. Business caution and reduced investment weigh on the dollar.

Thus, weak consumer confidence and durable goods data would act as strong drivers for GBP/USD growth. In the short term, a test of daily highs can be expected.

As for intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the pound at 1.3494 (green line on the chart), targeting growth toward 1.3524 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3524, I plan to exit purchases and open sales in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30–35 point move in the opposite direction. A strong rise in the pound today can be expected after weak U.S. data. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and only just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound today in the case of two consecutive tests of 1.3468, at a time when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This would limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upward. Growth toward the opposite levels of 1.3494 and 1.3524 can then be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the pound after breaking 1.3468 (red line on the chart), which will trigger a quick decline. The key target for sellers will be 1.3438, where I plan to exit sales and immediately open purchases in the opposite direction, aiming for a 20–25 point rebound. Sellers can push the pound lower if U.S. data proves strong. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and only just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound today in the case of two consecutive tests of 1.3494, at a time when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This would limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a reversal downward. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.3468 and 1.3438 can then be expected.

What's on the chart:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the instrument;
• Thick green line – estimated price for placing Take Profit or fixing profit manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the instrument;
• Thick red line – estimated price for placing Take Profit or fixing profit manually, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to follow overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Beginner Forex traders must be very cautious when deciding on market entries. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always use stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you neglect money management and trade large volumes.

And remember: successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one outlined above. Spontaneous decisions based only on the current market situation are an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.