Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Japanese Yen

The test of the 142.54 level in the second half of the day coincided with the MACD indicator just beginning to move downward from the zero line, confirming a correct entry point for selling the dollar and resulting in a decline toward the target level of 142.04.

The U.S. dollar lost ground against the Japanese yen following weak consumer confidence data. The consumer confidence index dropped sharply, which was expected—particularly given current U.S. trade policy. The figure came in below analysts' forecasts, raising concerns about the outlook for U.S. economic growth and putting pressure on the dollar.

The yen's strengthening is also linked to increased demand for safe-haven assets amid global uncertainty. Geopolitical tensions and fears of a global economic slowdown are prompting investors to seek shelter in safe havens such as the Japanese yen.

In the short term, the USD/JPY pair's dynamics will depend on further economic data from both the U.S. and Japan and broader developments in global financial markets. Investors will closely monitor speeches from Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan officials to gauge their monetary policy intentions.

For intraday strategy, I will focus primarily on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today at the 142.82 entry point (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 143.38 (thicker green line). Around 143.38, I intend to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30–35 pip retracement. It is best to return to buying USD/JPY on pullbacks and deeper corrections.

Important: Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if the price tests the 142.45 level twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downside potential and trigger an upward reversal. A move toward 142.82 and 143.38 can be expected.

Sell Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after a breakout below 142.45 (red line on the chart), which should lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 141.91, where I plan to exit the short position and immediately open a long position, aiming for a 20–25 pip bounce. Selling pressure could return at any moment.

Important: Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and beginning to decline.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if the price tests the 142.82 level twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a reversal downward. A drop toward 142.45 and 141.91 can be expected.

What's on the Chart:

• The thin green line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be bought.
• The thick green line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price growth above this level is unlikely.
• The thin red line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be sold.
• The thick red line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price decline below this level is unlikely.
• The MACD indicator should be used to assess overbought and oversold zones when entering the market.

Important Notes:

• Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making market entry decisions. It is advisable to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid exposure to sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Trading without stop-loss orders can quickly wipe out your entire deposit, especially if you neglect money management principles and trade with high volumes.
• Remember, successful trading requires a well-defined trading plan, similar to the one outlined above. Making impulsive trading decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for intraday traders.